Derby Day!

Finally its Derby Day! For some reason it seems like this spring Derby prep schedule took forever to get through, but we re finally here.  All year long we have been waiting for a 3yr old to leave his mark, run a huge race, or do something that tells us he is the clear number 1.  It hasn’t happened (in my opinion) yet but lets hope that the derby can clear this division up for us.  That being said, it leaves this Derby as one of the most wide open in recent history, which makes for an exciting betting race.  Truth is, the entire day has great betting opportunities so lets dive in and look at the card.

Race 1  3-5-1

Race 2   3-1-8

Race 3   1-3-10

Race 4  11-10-1

Race 5   10-12-2

Race 6  9-1-5   In the Distaff Mile Tepin will be a huge favorite and a deserving one at that.  If you want to try to beat her, Rainha Da Bateria first time for Chad Brown might be the choice to pull the upset.  Might get some pace to run into, Bureau de Change also looks interesting at 30-1

Race 7  3-1-5 The Churchill Downs Stakes.  I’m leaning towards Calculator here to turn the tables on Salutos Amigos, who doesn’t run as well away from Aqueduct.  I think this 7f to a mile distance is his best trip, should get some pace to run into but if not can be a little closer then my second choice Kobe’s Back who needs a meltdown upfront to get to the wire first.  Limousine Liberal should hang on late after setting the pace.

Race 8  10-9-8 The Humana Distaff looks like it sets up perfectly for Wavell Avenue.  Probably needed the race in the Madison and still didn’t run bad.  Gets Rosario back on her whos had great success with her.  Should be coming late. Birdatthewire goes back to Romans who did great work with her and should also be coming late.

Race 9   10-3-4 The American Turf Going with a longshot here at 15-1, American Patriot has a devastating turn of foot, might not get a hot pace to run at, but has shown he can close into a slower one, getting red hot Geroux to ride is also a bonus.  Converge had a bad trip last out when getting beat by Shakhimat at Keeneland, with a clean trip he will be tough in the stretch

Bonus, all stakes pick 4   3-4-8-10/9-11-13/3-12/15-16-17

Race 10  13-11-9 The Pat Day Mile Lots of interesting plays in this race.  Looks like there will be some speed here so I’m going to play a few horses that have shown they can come from behind.  I land on Star Hill who had an eye catching maiden score at Gulf, and ran a good race against the grain in the Bluegrass.  American Freedom coulnt have looked any better breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on Derby day and should be tough as well.  Fellowship always runs his race and should get up for minor awards.

Race 11 3-12-11  The Woodford Reserve  Bolo has always been a better grass horse then dirt horse.  After they moved him back to the green he has rarely run a bad race.  His race 2 back was a beautiful race and was to far back in his last.  Should get a nice stalking trip and Mike Smith knows him well.  Big Blue Kitten is dangerous as always, because he just doesn’t run a bad race.  Only flaw is the layoff.

Race 12 16-15-17-19-5 The Kentucky Derby  The big daddy is finally here.  As of early wagering I am shocked that my top choice Shagaf is 74-1, but I am not swaying.  Ive liked him all year and his last 2 works over this track have been great.  Hes been galloping beautifully over the track all week.  I don’t think h liked the Mud in the Wood and had some trouble.  Love the move to Rosario here.  Should sit close and make a move on the turn.  Outwork, who won the Wood should get a nice stalking trip as well right behind Danzing Candy, just don’t know if hes good enough to hold them all off.  Mor Spirit has never been worse then second in his career so you know he will run his race.  Seems like a plodder to me without a huge turn of foot, should be around at the end.  Of all the closers, I’m leaning towards Brodys Cause to be running late.

Good Luck everyone!

 

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Derby Day!

Weekend Stakes Thoughts….

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What a great day of racing across the country with Big Cap day at Santa Anita as well at Tamp Bay Derby day at Tampa.  Two minor stakes at Gulfstream but lets start at Tampa for their great Derby card.

Tampa Race 3 is the Challenger stakes. I’m looking at the #1 OUTLASH in this spot.  Two good races at Gulf that got good numbers, has speed but doesn’t need the lead and can get good position breaking from the rail. Think he has more potential and this 1 1/16 trip should suit him perfect.     1-4-7

Tampa race 8 is the Florida Oaks for 3yr old fillies on the turf. I’m going to the try to eat the favorite Ave’s Kitten who hasn’t raced since last October. I’m going to pick SPINAMISS for Todd Pletcher and Castellano.  Loved her allowance win over this course two back and then just missed to Pricedtoperfection who would be favored here if she ran.  Has the edge over the other favorites with a recent race and should be tough here.   7-10-2-4

Tampa Race 10 The Hillsborough stakes looks like Tepin’s race to lose.  She should be very short odds and will be super tough in here.  I am picking against because there is some other speed in here, and she might not be fully cranked up for this with her major goal being the Makers Mark Mile in a few weeks at Keeneland. Also I don’t think she is as good going 1 1/8.  That leads me to BALL DANCER on the outside.  Showed great potential late in ’14 and early ’15 winning the Jenny Wiley. Likes this distance and Chad usually has them ready to run fresh.  The odds will be right for her today. 10-6-3

Tampa Race 11 In the Tampa Bay Derby I really like DESTIN to improve off of his win in the Sam Davis last out.  He likes the track, seems to have figured it all out, and will have a nice pace to run into. I also like RAFTING and ECONOMIC MODEL to complete the exacta and trifecta.  Economic Model could be interesting finally stretching out after two sprint starts. I think Brody’s Cause will need a race and wont be fully cranked for this.

SANTA ANITA

S.A. Race 6 In the Kilroe Mile I really like BAL A BALI to return to his former self.  He has been training lights out after a brief freshening for Mandella and loves this distance.  Overnight rain softened the turf course and he has shown an affinity for it back in Brazil. Will be tough.  BOLO also looks like a tough customer in this spot coming off that great win first time back, worried about a bounce. 3-4-6

S.A. Race 7 The San Felipe might be the deepest Derby prep of the year so far. I’m leaning heavily on EXAGERATOR.  When he hasn’t faced Brody’s Cause or Nyquist he hasn’t lost! I think the 7F prep set him up perfectly for this race and with plenty of speed it will set up his closing kick. 7-2-1

S.A. Race 9 In the San Carlos I’m picking Calculator to go back to back.  Couldn’t have been more impressive in his comeback race and doesn’t have to be as far back as he was there when he missed the break. Will get a good stalking trip inside and if he can get out, will be tough in the stretch. 1-3-8

S.A. Race 10 The Big Cap may have lost some luster with most top US horses going to Dubai, but we are left with an intriguing group of starters here.  I’m leaning towards DONWORTH who I’ve always been very high on.  Should be tighter second start off the layoff and with a start over the track, should have the edge on favorite EFFINEX, who may need a race, first time out since November.  In the last 20 runnings of the big cap, no horse has won making his season debut!

 

Weekend Stakes Thoughts….

Fountain of Youth day picks at Gulfstream

Happy Fountain of Youth day!Mohaymen-The-holy-bull9-credit-lauren-king.jpg

Lots of great racing today down in Hallandale Beach,  13 races, 8 stakes and some full field allowance races make this a handicappers dream.  Everyone is excited for the Fountain of Youth and to see Mohaymens next step on the way to the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby after that.  He should be a short price, but it will be hard to beat him.  Lets dive into this card and try and weed out some winners. With 13 races we are going to breeze through a couple so we aren’t here all day!

Race 1

3-6-7   DUFFLE BAG might be able to control the pace on his own, and if he’s lone speed, then he will be dangerous to catch off his last where he went wire to wire.  NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR looks dangerous, I just don’t like putting horses trying something for the first time on top.  This is his first grass try.

Race 2

3-8-1   OSORNO ran visually very impressive in both his races.  Should be able to clear today and take them wire to wire.  CAPITAL CITY should sit a perfect stalking trip and should be tough to deal with.

Race 3

5-7-10   DIRECT MESSAGE wasn’t going to catch lone leader Gettysburg in his last.  Still ran well and should sit right off the pace today for Albertrani whos at 18% at this meet.  MAJESTO will graduate one of these days, always tries hard might have been a bit to far back in last.  DIG DEEP will try to wire the field from a difficult outside post.

Race 4

5 X Y JET looks almost unbeatable in the Gulfstream Park sprint.  His last 3 races have been breathtaking and he may be second best sprinter in the country behind Runhappy.  The only knock is the connections said its a prep for Dubai, but even at 75% he should be able to dust this group.

Race 5

4-5-2  I know I’m going against the grain here picking LEWIS BAY, to upset CATHRYN SOPHIA, but I just cant take 1/5 on a horse and that’s probably what shell be.  Lewis bay has looked very good in her 3 races and while there are distance questions for Sophia, Lewis Bay has already won going longer and her breeding says she’ll love it.  Also Chad Brown can get them ready off the bench.

Race 6

2-4-8   Longshot HOLD HARMLESS is very intriguing. Very impressive maiden breaker and then given some time to rest.  Last 2 works have been really nice for Shug and should sit off and make one run at them.  LIRA Hasn’t done anything wrong in her 3 starts, will be the first to challenge the favorite when theal running begins.  CATCH A GLIMPSE, is a deserving favorite off the Breeders Cup win.  First race back, might need to shake off some rust and might also be prepping for bigger and better. Trying to beat.

Race 7

1-11-9  Maybe GAP YEAR needed her last race, she finished 7th but did only get beaten 1 1/2 lengths. I think she likes settling right off the pace instead of having the lead.  Having the rail, she can get a good position right behind the speed here, should be dangerous if she runs to that Saratoga race.  SPARKLE FACTOR made a great rally in her US debut, might need the race but Clement can have them ready to fire off the bench on the turf.  OFF LIMITS is a first time US runner for Chad Brown who is 23% with this type of runner.

Race 8

8-1-3   HEART TO HEART is super hot right now, last 2 races were so impressive.  Horse he beat came back to win the G1 in his next start, with the 3rd place finisher not far behind.  Not much other speed signed on, can probably set his own pace.  TOWER OS TEXAS hasn’t run since September, but was a very tough customer all summer long at Woodbine.  LONG ON VALUE, is 1-1 on this course, runs well fresh and shows some nice works for this.  Shouldn’t be to far off a slow pace.

.20$ Rainbow 6 ticket  8/5-8/7-9-10-14/5-6-8-9-11/2-6/1-4-10

Race 9

5-8-1   I really like HOPE CROSS in this spot.  Just needs to get a little racing luck and she can finish one of these races off.  Hopefully Bravo can settle her off the pace and find the right seem turning for home.  You don’t want to stop a horse like this’ momentum when she’s making her run.  Same can be said for PARTISIAN POLITICS, these closers usually make their own trouble by being so far back, but if she gets a clean trip she has an explosive turn of foot.  CELESTINE will be a pace benefactor from her rail spot, should have first run on the others.

Race 10

7-14-9   THATCHER STREET has been ultra consistent and just lost to Heart to Heart in his last, who has won 2 in a row.  Should be able to sit right off the pace, and if he’s ready off the lay off will be very tough. TAPITATION is interesting from way outside, great race last out, tough at 10-1. As a longshot, I love THREE ALARM FIRE.  Have always liked this horse, disappointed lately but tries turf, has big turn of foot, needed the last race, should be sharper now, and that last turf work was very good.

Late Pick 4 play   5-7-9-14/5-8-9-11/2/1-4-10   24$

Race 11

11-6-5-8  CONVERGE hasn’t been seen since Oct but he made a 7wide run and just missed in a minor stakes at Belmont.  Must have impressed Castellano and he stays here and leaves last out winner.  URBAN BOURBON, has run some quality races.  Winning 2 back and just missing in a G3 last out.  Small vacation to freshen up and should sit a great trip just off the pace.  Maiden KISMET’S HEELS had trouble in both starts, if he gets a clean trip he can win this.  Longshot SCHOLAR ATHLETE ran wide and closed into a slow pace last out, promising future on turf.

Race 12

2-6-4   I know its going to be hard to beat MOHAYMEN but ZULU might be the one who can do it.  I can picture Awesome Speed and Awesome Banner going out to the lead and Zulu sitting right off the pace and getting jump on MOHAYMEN.  He hasn’t raced on a dry surface yet, but trains great over it.  If he can rate off the speed and get the jump on the big boy, he might be able to shock today.  What can you say about MOHAYMEN? undefeated, gorgeous looks, runs fast.  Deserving favorite.  Out of the two speed horses, I see AWESOME SPEED hanging around longer.

Race 13

4-1-10   BILLYS KITTEN, took monmey first out but didn’t fire.  Chad gave him 7 weeks to get ready for this one and adds blinkers.  Dangerous.  AMERICAN PATRIOT looked awfully good in his only race, rallying to just lose by 3/4 of a length. If CITE can not lose to much ground from the outside post, he will be tough to deal with coming from mid pack.

If you’re playing along with us, good luck today! Spread the word about us!

Fountain of Youth day picks at Gulfstream

My thoughts on a good day of racing, and some free picks as well!

One Saturday closer to the only Saturday everyone has on their minds, Derby Saturday! In that spirit we have a great prep in the Risen Star with a full field. Fairgrounds also has a very strong and deep supporting stakes schedule as well.  Unfortunately, When I opened todays form at Gulfstream, I thought it was a Wednesday afternoon card in July, it was so weak.  I don’t think I’ve seen a weaker Saturday card at the Gulf winter meet recently.  Its so bad, not what I’ve come to expect down there. An lets dive in….

Gulf race 1gulfstream_00

7-9-2  DABRIA should be tough here, dropping a level after a wide run last time and not getting beat to much. Another dropper DUCHESS BIRD looked like she was going to be tough in her last but fattened out, should like the easier company.

Gulf race 3

7-2-5  I loved GREY GLORYs maiden win last out, should sit a similar trip breaking from the outside here.  DEEP SEA has run 3 consistent high buyers, I am throwing his last race out because I just think he is better then that, love the last work, showing he’s ready.  JUAN AND BINA is not a favorite I want any part of, stuck at this level for a while, just doesn’t ever seem to want to finish the deal.  You can have him at 2-1 or 9/5

Gulf race 4

1-5-2  SHARP AZTECA looks like he could be fast enough to grab the lead here in what I think is a pace less race. Got bumped in his last and set fast fractions before tiring, should get an easier trip today.  SINGLETON, plodded along ion his debut, got a modest number, few works since have been fast so maybe the light bulb has been turned on, if closer to the ace then last time, he has a shot. Sticking with the slow pace I’m foreseeing, EQUINE PERFECTION also might sit a good stalking trip.

Gulf race 6

1-5-4  Ill admit GINGER GOOSE doesn’t like to win, loves to come in second, I just Feel with the switch to Rosario, that should get the job done, as he is probably the finishing rider out there.  ARE WE NOT MEN drops into this group off two good efforts against better.  DUVAL ST for Dale Romans should also appreciate the drop In class.

Gulf Race 9

5-11-10  STOCKYARD was 23 lengths out of it in his debut, rallied to only lose by 6.  Nice set of works for Pletcher since and shouldn’t be that far back today, big shot.  COMMEND, has the look of a real contender for Mott with a nice debut and some nice follow up works, just might get caught wide from the 11 hole. MONTAUK MAN just missed last out and beat my top choice will be tough to deny again.

Pick 4 Play    5-11/1-6-9/3-6/2-6-10    $18

Gulf 12

2-10-6  TWO STEPS FORWARD wont have to take many steps forward to win this, in fact a duplicate of his last is probably good enough.  First timer MAKE IT COUNT should be difficult to keep out of the payoffs for Chad Brown and Rosario, long steady works, should be ready to go.  With a good amount of trouble in his last, ADD FOUR should be coming late.

FAIRGROUNDS STAKESstageplay11-1%20400

Race 5   In the Mineshaft Handicap I’m going to lean towards EAGLE turning the tables on INTERNATIONAL STAR, hoping he can get the jump on him and that Int’star regresses off his last huge performance.  4-3-2

Race 6   A turf allowance, I like TREND to get up this time with a cleaner trip then he got last. HAMMERS TERROR will also be tough off the layoff for Maker. 6-10-4

Race 7   CLEARLY NOW looks awfully tough in this spot with some speed to run at. 6

Race 8   The ultra consistent STREET OF GOLD will be tough to hold off in this one.  She always comes with her run.  NOTTE D’ORO and speedy CASH CONTROL are also live looks. 3-10-9

Race 9   STAGEPLAY will be very tough here but at short odds, I like her stablemate at much better odds, ROYAL OBSESSION. Should be able to close into a some what fast pace.  9-8-4

Race 10  I’m hoping the jockey change to Castellano will help ROMAN APPROVAL turn the tables on ultra tough  CHOCOLATE RIDE. BLARP has an outside shot to upset.  3-6-8

Race 11 The big one, the Risen Star, derby points are on the line here.  I like TOMS READY to turn the tables on his stablemate MO TOM.  Two really good works since, showing he’s fresh and ready, coupled with the switch to Johnny Velasquez make the difference. Until AIROFORCE shows me he can do it on a fast main track, I cant put him on top, tons of talent though. 8-2-10

My thoughts on a good day of racing, and some free picks as well!

Lets try the Rainbow 6 today at gulfstream

Not a big pick 6 player, mainly a pick 3 and 4 guy but sometimes the pot gets so high you got to take a shot!

Here it is in all its glory, this is before scratches so I apologize in advance if someone scratches out after….

8/6-9-12/2/3-6-9/3/1-2-3-4-5-6-8-10

Lets try the Rainbow 6 today at gulfstream