So ill start by saying I WAS WRONG! I didnt think Chrome would be competitive in the world cup and wow was I way off. Not only did he win, he turned in one of the more impressive world cup performances in recent history, all while his saddle was slipping down towards his hind end! So once again I was wrong! He raced 3 or 4 wide on both turns (which is his prefered running style) and when Victor asked the question, he exploded down the lane. Hopertunity ran his usual race and got up for third for a nice 1million dollar payday. Msawish faed down the lane and my choice Frosted kind of ran an even race to get 5th. Make you sad to think that Chrome and Pharoah never got to face eachother. Last years Classic could have had Chrome, Pharoah, and Shared Belief which would have been an amazing race. Lets hope he makes it healthy all year and his owner doesnt ruin him somehow. Congrats also to Art Sherman who did a wonderful job starting from scratch with him and having him ready to peak Saturday night.
So we are a few hours away from the worlds richest horse race,. The Dubai World Cup, worth 10 million dollars. Not a bad pay day for 2 minutes of running! Everyone is excited to see California Chrome run and try to improve off of last years runner up finish. A lot of people were concerned about the wide post but if you remember Chrome does his best running outside of horses and doesn’t like to be down inside. I know its a unpopular opinion but I just don’t think he’s good enough. Even though he runs better wide, he is still going to lose ground doing it. That might work against lesser competition in the San Pasqual, but against the worlds best he wont be able to lose that ground and still kick on down the lane. Just one mans opinion. He also hasn’t run a really fast since the 2014 BC Classic.
My pick is not surprising if you’ve followed this blog, Frosted is in my opinion the best handicap horse in training currently. Any other year, he would be a classic winner, possibly duel but he had the misfortune of being born the same year as American Pharaoh. His races away from Pharaoh were very impressive winning the Wood and Penn Derby. His prep for this was visually impressive and should be set to run big from just off the pace. Also Mshawish could be set to run a big race off his awesome Donn Handicap win. Regardless its going to be one hell of a race!
Im posting a link for a great article on the sad future of Rockingham Park in Salem Nh. Unless a miracle happens in the NH senate thursday it looks like Nh will once again kill any hope of legalizing Gambling in the state. People in government are opposed to gambling for what it brings to the state (besides money and jobs). Whats funny about that is that right now the track brings in 2 million dollars a year in “charitable gaming” (poker, blackjack, craps) which apparently is different from “gambling”. Its all scare tactics from anti gambling people in the state. Instead it looks like the track will get demolished and redeveloped in the next 18 months. Its a very sad situation for New England racing who has already lost hope with Suffolk Downs getting bypassed for a casino. On a personal note, living a few miles from “The Rock” its where i grew up and also where i caught the bug for this beautiful sport. Friday nights under the lights, saturdays on a lawnchair in the picnic area, great memories. To see it standing there, falling apart, knowing itll never be back to its glory days, when seabiscuit ran there, or big NY outfits shipping in for the NH Sweepstakes every summer, its a shame. Its time for people to wake up and see what we are losing, but unfortunetly its probably already to late.
Really liked Cupids race in the Rebel yesterday. He had a bad start, rushed to the lead and that would usually spell doom for most horses. After getting the lead, he was able to slow down his second quarter and when Whitmore came running late in the stretch, Cupid dug down and would not let him by. He showed a lot of heart to finish like he did after a not so ideal beginning. As for Whitmore, I loved his race and would be who I would chose going forward from the race. Off the pace, had to chase home a horse who was able to dictate his own pace and didn’t get much pace pressure. Went a little wide on the turns (because of post, and running style) and was finishing well. Might have hung a little but definetly ran a lot further then Cupid did. He might be the play in the Arkansas Derby if there is a little more pace pressure on Cupid.
Here’s a quick late pick 4 at gulfstream today March 13
9/3-4-6-7/1-2-5-6/9-11 16$ Good Luck
What a great day of racing across the country with Big Cap day at Santa Anita as well at Tamp Bay Derby day at Tampa. Two minor stakes at Gulfstream but lets start at Tampa for their great Derby card.
Tampa Race 3 is the Challenger stakes. I’m looking at the #1 OUTLASH in this spot. Two good races at Gulf that got good numbers, has speed but doesn’t need the lead and can get good position breaking from the rail. Think he has more potential and this 1 1/16 trip should suit him perfect. 1-4-7
Tampa race 8 is the Florida Oaks for 3yr old fillies on the turf. I’m going to the try to eat the favorite Ave’s Kitten who hasn’t raced since last October. I’m going to pick SPINAMISS for Todd Pletcher and Castellano. Loved her allowance win over this course two back and then just missed to Pricedtoperfection who would be favored here if she ran. Has the edge over the other favorites with a recent race and should be tough here. 7-10-2-4
Tampa Race 10 The Hillsborough stakes looks like Tepin’s race to lose. She should be very short odds and will be super tough in here. I am picking against because there is some other speed in here, and she might not be fully cranked up for this with her major goal being the Makers Mark Mile in a few weeks at Keeneland. Also I don’t think she is as good going 1 1/8. That leads me to BALL DANCER on the outside. Showed great potential late in ’14 and early ’15 winning the Jenny Wiley. Likes this distance and Chad usually has them ready to run fresh. The odds will be right for her today. 10-6-3
Tampa Race 11 In the Tampa Bay Derby I really like DESTIN to improve off of his win in the Sam Davis last out. He likes the track, seems to have figured it all out, and will have a nice pace to run into. I also like RAFTING and ECONOMIC MODEL to complete the exacta and trifecta. Economic Model could be interesting finally stretching out after two sprint starts. I think Brody’s Cause will need a race and wont be fully cranked for this.
S.A. Race 6 In the Kilroe Mile I really like BAL A BALI to return to his former self. He has been training lights out after a brief freshening for Mandella and loves this distance. Overnight rain softened the turf course and he has shown an affinity for it back in Brazil. Will be tough. BOLO also looks like a tough customer in this spot coming off that great win first time back, worried about a bounce. 3-4-6
S.A. Race 7 The San Felipe might be the deepest Derby prep of the year so far. I’m leaning heavily on EXAGERATOR. When he hasn’t faced Brody’s Cause or Nyquist he hasn’t lost! I think the 7F prep set him up perfectly for this race and with plenty of speed it will set up his closing kick. 7-2-1
S.A. Race 9 In the San Carlos I’m picking Calculator to go back to back. Couldn’t have been more impressive in his comeback race and doesn’t have to be as far back as he was there when he missed the break. Will get a good stalking trip inside and if he can get out, will be tough in the stretch. 1-3-8
S.A. Race 10 The Big Cap may have lost some luster with most top US horses going to Dubai, but we are left with an intriguing group of starters here. I’m leaning towards DONWORTH who I’ve always been very high on. Should be tighter second start off the layoff and with a start over the track, should have the edge on favorite EFFINEX, who may need a race, first time out since November. In the last 20 runnings of the big cap, no horse has won making his season debut!
Some thoughts on the feature at gulfstream today, race 9, a OC62$/n2X going 1 3/16 on the turf. If you have been watching the races at Gulfstream lately you have noticed that speed is king on the turf and if that trend continues I really feel Seeking Alpha will be very dangerous. Coming off two wins Chad seems to have found this horse out and with his close stalking style, he will be close to, If not on the led in this pace less race.